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GEMF

Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros

Estudos do GEMF, N.º 20 de 2013

   

Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?

(Publicado em European Journal of Political Economy 36: 274-286, 2014)


Rodrigo Martins

GEMF / Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra

Francisco José Veiga
NIPE / Universidade do Minho

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.

JEL Classification:
D72, H7.

Keywords:
Vote shares, Turnout, Legislative Elections, Portugal.

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