Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?
(Publicado em European Journal of Political Economy 36: 274-286, 2014)
GEMF / Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra
Francisco José Veiga
NIPE / Universidade do Minho
This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received
by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated
using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period
1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that
right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while
left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the
responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that
regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.