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GEMF

Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros

Estudos do GEMF, N.º 09 de 2014

  

The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance and Results

in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams


Pedro Godinho

Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra e GEMF

Pedro Cerqueira
Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra e GEMF

Abstract:
In this study we analyse the link between stock returns and results in national league matches for 13 clubs of six different European countries. We assume that the stock prices should only respond to the unexpected component of match results, and we use betting odds to separate the expected component of the results from the unexpected one. We consider both the unweighted results (each match having the same weight in the model) and the results weighted by a new measure of match importance that we develop. We conclude that, when this measure is used to weight the unexpected component of the results, there is a significant link between the results and stock performance for 12 out of the 13 considered clubs. So, this link can be considered to be quite consistent. We also conclude that using this measure of match importance to weight the unexpected component of the match outcomes leads to an improvement in the results we achieve.

JEL Classification: G14, C30.


Keywords: Stock returns; Football results; Football teams; Information in stock markets; MGARCH.

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