a carregar...


Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeiros

Estudos do GEMF, N.º 13 de 2015


Budget, Expenditures Composition and Political Manipulation:

Evidence from Portugal

Vítor Castro
Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra e NIPE

Rodrigo Martins

Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra e GEMF


This paper examines the presence of political cycles in Portuguese governments’ expenditures. The empirical analysis is done using monthly data for the main categories of government expenditures. The results indicate that Portuguese governments act opportunistically regarding the budget surplus and that they also favour capital instead of current spending near elections. Furthermore, right-wing governments tend to be more prone to expenditures’ reduction and deficits after the elections. A disaggregated analysis for the main components of government expenditures corroborates the previous findings and shows other relevant patterns of political manipulations.

JEL Classification: H72, D72, D78.

Keywords: Political budget cycles; Expenditure composition; Portugal; Elections; Fiscal policy.

Download PDF

(422 KB)